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Skipping A Year And Landing In 2021: Mike Dolan

2021-01-02T02:34:51Z

CathrynStjohn40:

By Mike Dolan LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Part of the reason major investors seem slightly weary about their rosy market outlooks for 2021 is that they have been talking about and planning for little else since March. It's like the markets effectively skipped over 2020 on a bridge provided by central banks and governments and have been gradually pricing a policy and vaccine-supported rebound ever since. Both are meeting forecasts so far. Despite the biggest contraction of world gross domestic product since the immediate aftermath of World War Two, global stocks captured by MSCI's all-country index are ending the year at record highs. Annual gains of more than 10% may be less than half the stellar rise of 2019, but they are still better than six of the past 10 years and November was the best month on record as COVID-19 vaccine breakthroughs accelerated a blistering 65% surge since the depths of the initial lockdowns in March. The unprecedented year has almost been papered over. Just looking at consensus stock market forecasts from Reuters polls for 2021 and those from a year earlier, you'd barely guess what we've been through. Twelve months ago, the consensus saw the S&P500 rising 5% by the end of 2020. This year, the forecast is for another 10% in 2021 - with some of the biggest banks, such as JPMorgan, seeing gains of almost twice that. Perhaps more revealing is that when asked how long the current bull market would last, less than 20% said "more than two years" in November 2019. On the assumption it did end for a very brief five month hiatus between February and August of 2020, then about 20% of the poll got that right. But this year, more than 30% said the current bull market would last more than two years. What's more, Reuters latest asset manager poll this week showed the positioning to reflect this as equity allocations have returned to pre-pandemic levels. But what of the much feared economic 'scarring' from the pandemic or hangovers from policy-induced sugar highs? For many, the latter is hard to envisage given the need for [https://www.kynghidongduong.vn/tours/tour-du-lich-le-hoi-yen-tu-chua-ba-vang-quang-ninh-du-lich-yen-tu-tu-ha-noi.html tour chùa yên tử] interest rates to stay near zero to service massive accumulated government debts, still dominant deflationary pressures and a persistence of spare capacity. And so rather than a 'last hurrah', the 10-year bull market may only have had a five month breather and is set to start all over again. NEVER BEFORE "Never in my life have I seen a recession where household income has actually gone up and disposable income has gone up," Aviva Investors' multi-asset chief investment officer Peter Fitzgerald told this week's Reuters Investment Outlook Summit. The shocking event, the massive support, the debt legacy and the interest rate implication mean investors are left with few other options than to overweight equity and risk, he said. "If you are a non-leveraged investor who is not going to be shaken out of markets, you need to have an overweight allocation to risk assets in today's world where the value of money is being degraded," Fitzgerald told Reuters. "You are at the early stages of a new cycle." Of course no one foresaw the pandemic, the lockdowns, the economic slump and the eye-watering 35% drawdown in MSCI's global index in the 27 trading days to March 23. And many sectors such as banking and [https://www.kynghidongduong.vn/tours/tour-du-lich-le-hoi-yen-tu-chua-ba-vang-quang-ninh-du-lich-yen-tu-tu-ha-noi.html tour chùa yên tử] energy stocks, as well as more than half the 17 national stock markets covered by Reuters polls, will end 2020 in the red. But if narrowly focused on equities and taking the broadest all-country benchmark, then it would hardly have mattered to the portfolio. And there appears little doubt about what's ahead over the next 12 months. All the issues underlying it have been thrashed out a thousand times already as vaccines emerge and support programmes abound. That might suggest markets are already fully priced - but few fund managers think that either. Despite some conflicting surveys, data on household savings, money supply and money market fund data still shows substantial pandemic-related cash hoards yet to be invested as the reality of recovery, the vaccine rollout and a new U.S. president and administration have yet to play out through the year. Things can yet go bump in the night - persistent infections and lockdowns and ineffective vaccines, unexpected political twists, central bank and fiscal policy hesitation, or inflation scares. But these have been gamed continually by [http://www.empowher.com/search/site/investment investment] managers for months. A more serious shuffling of the investment pack on so-called 'normalisation trades' between lockdown winners of tech and pharma stocks to the 'value stock' laggards and cyclicals in energy, banking and travel and leisure will take up the time of many active managers. But even if things do normalise fully, no one doubts the big lockstep legacy of this 'skipped year'. The widest measure of sovereign and corporate bond borrowing costs - the yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Multiverse - has never been lower at just 1%. "Risk exposure to equities should be your preferred asset class," Sonja Laud, chief investment officer at Legal & General Asset Management told the Reuters summit. (by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD. Reporting by Tommy Wilkes, Sujata Rao and Reuters Polling. Editing by Mark Potter)

President Donald Trump Has Reportedly Been In Talks With His Advisers About Pardons For His Children Ivanka Eric And Don Jr As Well As His Son-in-law Jared Kushner And His Personal Lawyer Rudy Giuliani

2020-12-28T22:58:11Z

CathrynStjohn40:

President Donald Trump has reportedly been in talks with his advisers about pardons for his children Ivanka, Eric and Don Jr, [https://www.kynghidongduong.vn/tours/tour-du-lich-le-hoi-yen-tu-chua-ba-vang-quang-ninh-du-lich-yen-tu-tu-ha-noi.html tour yên tử] as well as his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. According to the [ ], the president is worried that a Biden administration may seek retribution against him by targeting the oldest of his five children. However, presidential pardons do not provide protection against state or local crimes. The president reportedly asked aides if he has the right to pardon himself and family members and has even asked if he could issue pardons pre-emptively for things people could be charged with in the future. Don Jr had been under investigation for contacts that he had with Russians offering damaging information on Hillary Clinton during the 2016 campaign. He was investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller but he was never charged. Scroll down for video President Donald Trump has reportedly been in talks with his advisers about pardons for his children Ivanka, Eric and Don Jr, as well as his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani Trump would have the right to pardon any family members as he sees fit. Above, (From R) Barron Trump, First [https://www.sportsblog.com/search?search=Lady%20Melania Lady Melania] Trump, President Trump, Tiffany Trump, Donald Trump Jr, Kimberly Guilfoyle, [https://www.kynghidongduong.vn/tours/tour-du-lich-le-hoi-yen-tu-chua-ba-vang-quang-ninh-du-lich-yen-tu-tu-ha-noi.html tour chùa yên tử] Lara Trump, Eric Trump, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner and Michael Boulos According to the Times, Kushner provided false information to federal authorities about his contacts with foreigners for his security clearance. Despite that, he was given a security clearance anyway. It's unclear why Trump is concerned about potential criminal exposure of Eric or Ivanka. But, the Times reported that a probe by the Manhattan district attorney into the Trump Organization is now including tax write-offs on millions of dollars in consulting fees, some of which appear to have gone to Ivanka. Earlier on Tuesday it was reported that, Giulani discussed a preemptive pardon for himself with Trump, while arguing he can overturn the results of an 'illegitimate election'. The former New York mayor has been the most vocal and out-front defender of Trump's unsubstantiated charges of election fraud, seeking to persuade numerous states that went for Joe Biden to overturn their results. It's unclear who brought up the idea, but their discussion took place last week, sources told the Times. On the day before Thanksgiving, Trump pardoned former National Security Advisor Mike Flynn, who had pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his Russia contacts, then sought to withdraw the plea in court. Giuliani has reportedly been under investigation by federal prosecutors in New York over his work in Ukraine, which became the heart of Trump's impeachment. The impeachment revealed efforts by Giuliani and his associates to push out the former US ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch. President Donald Trump is said to have been asked by his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani for a pre-emptive pardon Draft documents revealed last [ ] Giuliani seeking to have Ukrainian government officials pay substantial fees to his consulting firm, although there is no evidence the deals went through. Giuliani denied the report on Twitter. '#FakeNews NYT lies again. Never had the discussion they falsely attribute to an anonymous source. Hard to keep up with all their lies,' he wrote. He represented Trump pro bono in his efforts to defend against the Democratic-led impeachment. The Times previously reported Giuliani is being paid $20,000 per day in his election defense, although he has denied that figure. On Monday, Giuliani associate Lev Parnas pleaded not guilty to defrauding in investors through the Florida-based company he set up, called Fraud Guarantee. The Ukraine-born Parnas assisted Giuliani in his efforts to dig up dirt on the Bidens in Ukraine. Parnas tweeted Tuesday 'Pardons were always discussed in the #TrumpCult. The question is will you accept one? Innocent people don't need a pardon.' RELATED ARTICLES [# Previous] [# 1] [# Next] [/news/article-9007715/DOJ-probe-plot-bribe-White-House-exchange-presidential-pardon.html 'Pardon investigation is Fake News!' Trump dismisses DOJ...] [/news/article-9006055/Rudy-Giuliani-asked-Donald-Trump-receiving-pre-emptive-pardon-leaves-office.html Rudy Giuliani has asked Donald Trump about receiving a...] Share this article Share US intelligence alerted the White House last year that a Russian intelligence officer was seeking to feed disinformation to Giuliani in his efforts to uncover information in Ukraine. There is precedent for presidents using their virtually limitless pardon power preemptively. Gerald Ford famously preemptively pardoned Richard Nixon, and paid a political price for it. There has also been talk in legal circles about whether Trump could seek to issue a self-pardon in order to wipe away potential legal exposure for himself. Even if it were upheld, Trump could still be subject to prosecution in state courts. New York investigators have already been investigating alleged possible [http://www.blogher.com/search/apachesolr_search/insurance insurance] and financial fraud. Giuliani was in Arizona on Monday attending a Republican-led hearing-style event where he laid out broad claims of election fraud even as the state's Republican governor [/news/fox-news/index.html Fox News][/news/fox-news/index.html Fox News] host Sean Hannity suggested Trump should pardon himself and his family before leaving the White House in January. The suggestion was made on Hannity's Fox News radio show on Monday while discussing how Trump last week announced a full pardon for his former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. Speaking to former Trump attorney Sidney Powell - fired from Trump's 'elite strike force' legal team when her conspiracy theories went to far even for the president - Hannity suggested that the president needed to protect himself from future legal investigations in order to protect himself from the incoming Biden administration. Hannity said that Biden was being publicly encouraged to investigate and prosecute Trump for any criminal misconduct while he was president. 'The president out the door needs to pardon his whole family and himself, because they want this witch hunt to go on in perpetuity. They're so full of rage and insanity against the president,' Hannity said. 'I mean, I assume that the power of the pardon is absolute, and that he should be able to pardon anybody that he wants to?' 'It is absolute it's in the Constitution,' Powell confirmed. Powell, who has been key to pushing an election conspiracy that corrupt voting machines stole the election from Trump, then added that she did not know about Trump's 'authority to pardon himself'. Powell then went on to suggest that such a pardon should not be necessary because 'the president is going to get another four years in office to finish the job he started because the election fraud we're uncovering is massive'. Trump's pardon on Wednesday of Flynn kicked off speculation that a string of pardons could be next - including for the president and his family. The president has granted clemency to supporters before, most notably earlier this year when he commuted the criminal sentence of Roger Stone, who was sentenced to prison after being convicted of lying under oath to lawmakers. In 2018, Trump even said he had the 'absolute right' to pardon himself - a claim many constitutional law scholars dispute. After he pardoned Flynn, Trump shared a tweet on Wednesday from Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz, one of his closest allies on Capitol Hill, who said the president should also consider a pardon for himself. 'President Trump should pardon Flynn, the Thanksgiving turkey, and everyone from himself, to his admin, to Joe Exotic if he has to,' Gaetz wrote. <div class="art-ins mol-factbox news" data-version="2" id="mol-1d0d1070-33fd-11eb-96dc-7defd57b17af" website 'discusses pardons for Ivanka, Eric and Don Jr'

Benutzer:CathrynStjohn40

2020-12-28T22:58:02Z

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